10 years 20 years ago is 1 year now. Everything is accelerating.Bitcoin 2018 is a completely different beast in every way than Bitcoin 2015. To think that length of last bear market is and indicator for this one, is folly. The bull is knocking on the door. Q4 will be glorious. 
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What's the rationale for that? Looks completely crazy to me. Fundamentals are off the chart. And as I said, I think it's way off to use previous timelines as any kind of measuring stick for the future in bitcoin. Acceleration is everywhere in Bitcoin.
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the rationale is: 1) the past 2.5-3 cycles extrapolated further 2) a $100B asset moves slower than a $10B asset, more time for the bubble to pop, more time to get the money/attention for another bull from scratch
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Point 2 is a valid argument. Thing is extrapolating past cycles doesn't account for difference in fringe movement of retail buyers compared to massive influx of institutional money.
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Institutions aren’t buying yet. Its still too crazy for them / no one wants career risk / custody risk, regs risk. The bolder among the institutions Institutions would rather buy below 5K imho, let this bear play out, let the weak get shaken out.
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My initial argument was that things are moving faster. In every facet of the world, and in Bitcoin even more so. Every narrative plays out faster. Bullshit is being called out faster. Wokeness is increasing exponentially. I don't see room for this bear to 'play out' any longer.
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It takes some time for the wokeness to “ripple” through society (no pun intended).
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I like the chart in theory but I agree with hodlnaut. Network effect is exponential & sentiment can easily flip at the drop of a hat, for many reasons. Too many people already thinking 100K, the path of least resistance will be up long before 2023
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it's actually not exponential but logarithmic. each subsequent 10x takes more time to achieve.
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