My list of factors: . Less liquid market . New bearish fundamental narratives . ICO holdings . ETHBTC longs . ICOs are scams narrative picking up speed . New bitmex perpetual swap
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Replying to @Crypto_Macro
I doubt narratives impact market much unless you mean re ICO tokens. This is an 8 mo not 2 wk bear and ETH/BTC ratio has steadily declined. CT’s reach globally probably small. I still think that it’s mostly a race to exit tokens (most are ETH-based) but you raise good pts.
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Replying to @panekkkk @Crypto_Macro
Mid-2017 was a race to make as much money on ICO tokens as possible before it collapsed and then it collapsed. Short thesis but simple.
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Replying to @panekkkk
Yes I agree. But ERC20 token liquidations don't affect ETH negatively. It is the treasury liquidations that does. Quantifying this is in my to do list.
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Replying to @Crypto_Macro
1. They need to exit to ETH first. That places demand on ETH but only in an illiquid ETH-token pair. If market was efficient there would be sufficient arb but there isn’t. 2. They then exit ETH for fiat. If all token bagholders do this, it places downward pressure on ETH-fiat.
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Replying to @panekkkk @Crypto_Macro
why do they need to neccessarily exit to ETH first? look at Binance of Bitfinex. most alts have much bigger and more liquid alt/BTC pairs...
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @Crypto_Macro
Agreed. Which is why it affects both ETH and BTC. BTC has larger depth and liquidity so not as much slippage/less reflexive. Also long tail of many tokens are only paired in ETH.
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Just a theory. I don’t think it’s the only explanation but feels like the overall catalyst for why the whole market is down.
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Replying to @panekkkk @Crypto_Macro
OR could it be that people are realizing that the market wasn't pricing the relative success probabilities (which market caps are) of BTC vs. ETH being the big future winner?
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @Crypto_Macro
Yah that definitely explains why BTC dropped 70%.
Put at least a little effort into your thinking.2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
are you pretending? its all about *relative* outperformance
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