There’s no telling how long long term is and due to limits and “advanceability” of tech, it’s anyone’s guess how tech $ will emerge — ie when a clear winner emerges, how long it retains dominance, if it breaks, when it breaks.
These are not physical monies
Tattoo that.
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Non-physicality is a double-edged sword. It can be argued that the fact that they are not physical makes the transferability, movement of wealth and subsequent game-theoretic convergence to one huge winner all the more accelerated...
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It also means one could be completely obsolete tomorrow. The point is simply that these monies are emergent. That doesn’t really have historical parallels. Physical materials are born with immutable characteristics. Cryptos will never cease changing. Fascinating and new.
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dominant coin won't be obsolete overnight, *even* if 10x better tech suddenly comes along. SoV has a deep mental / Lindy / reassurance factor to it; even a breakthrough newcomer would need at least 2-3 years of its own lindy to start challenging take over.
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also, a *full* 10x improvement over BTC is suuuper hard. monetary policy already best imaginable. security high. 1 decade of robustness. unlimited base layer TX with no tradeoffs + mathematically provable privacy + mathematically provable security.... MAYBE... but that's madness
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PoS (as SOV and cost-effectiveness), privacy, decentralization, scalability (throughput/latency and storage), and security are all dimensions across which you could see dimensional upgrades. Who said anything about 10x? Even 2x is literally twice as good.
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murad is right, 10x is needed to overcome switching costs. in innovation 2x is as useful as -2x. check out zero to one.
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Crypto today is hardly used by anyone and 2x may be more than enough to overcome switching costs. We simply don’t know.
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Why haven’t state fiats converged to one? Yes, USD is the clear leader, but there is a basket of other important fiat currencies.
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Are you serious? Obviously because of borders + local monopoly on money + debt extinguishing laws + local legal tenders + state decrees + coercion / force / violence / divide and conquer + local government apparatuses Most of which dont exist in the digital borderless realm
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Borders exist in the technical realm. There are "technological borders" that force software monies into different paths.
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I don't think "technological borders" make monetary premia get silo'ed in like that; from a financial/monetary standpoint "technological borders" are still much more fluid and will increasingly have less frictions than physical, geopolitical ones, in my view.
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Why only count gold and silver as SoV? There are hundreds of types of assets that people use as a SoV, (art, old cars, real estate, bonds etc.)
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We are discussing competition exclusively among monetary media. Obviously houses will remain
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