A deflationary cryptocurrency has a low probability of being used for payments -- at any meaningful scale https://hackernoon.com/the-impact-of-bitcoins-deflationary-token-economics-on-its-viability-as-a-global-digital-currency-878f3042fb08 … ...A great store of wealth though!
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it's simply irrational to park millions of dollars of wealth in a currency whose supply is expanding vs. one that is perfectly scarce. the free market is much more likely to game-theoretically choose the latter.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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There's nothing basic about macro-economic theory combined with digital, cryptographically secured money so basic theory has min application. You need to consider broader/current context: we have fiat money, incomplete roadmaps, min distribution, tech/econ limitations, etc.
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These are variables that piss all over basic Austrian economic theory. Thinking it will play out exactly according to theory is a recipe for disaster.
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At best you can use it as a guide but you have to mold it to current context and apply probabilistic thinking.
$BTC is an evolving, emergent technology. It is not in its final form. Neither are its competitors. There are white/black swans that simply cannot be theorized. -
do you agree that *as things are* BTC is more likely to win money/SoV use case?
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Not really no. I can't separate the tech from its final form. Investors will start dropping if/when fees skyrocket / if LN fails / etc. Same goes for
$ETH with PoS and sharding. If PoS works, it decimates any concerns about minimal inflation. I've seen what PoS does to hodlers. -
I don't know how a
$BTC investor can look at PoS and not be terrified. Not only does inflation grease the wheels of spending but it increases its SoV. -
money is supposed to be a highly liquid reliably saleable good at a moment's notice, if you have to lock it up for a months-long period **simply not to have your wealth eroded away** then that hurts the immediacy and saleability of your chosen money. the rest are diluted
End of conversation
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