Many people currently assume that if a cryptocurrency is widely used for payments it will become valuable. But what if that's not true? According to Ben's math, if Visa had a coin, with its current volumes it would likely only be worth around $3 billion. https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1011005759637749761 …
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Replying to @nathanielpopper
Catch-22: coins that are useful for payments have a stable proce, and therefore a bad investment. Coins which increase in price are doing so because of speculation that one day they’ll be useful for payments, but increasing prices makes them bad for payments
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Replying to @bascule @nathanielpopper
you need enough speculation to propel fixed-supply coins to a large enough size where there is stability & usability to be used as MoE, I'd say it is around ~10T market cap in 2018 USD terms. 100x from here for BTC.
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @nathanielpopper
So what you're saying is the problem is the cryptocurrency ecosystem is only at Bear Stearns/Lehman Brothers size right now, and when it's bigger than that it will be too big to fail and people will be forced to use it?
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Replying to @bascule @nathanielpopper
Do you think Gold was price-stable the very day it was found? Bitcoin is undergoing monetization. It’s not about “too big to fail”, but rather MoE wants stability and liquidity which requires raw size. If anything, BTC’s goal is to stop kleptocratic “too big to fail” phenomena.
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @nathanielpopper
Bitcoin's volatility isn't just due to its comparatively modest market size. Tether is being used to manipulate the price
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Replying to @MustStopMurad @nathanielpopper
Writing a long-form blog post about it now
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