1/ Many of the SV / SF / VC / HF think ETH or another smart contract platform will win because “more people are building apps on it.”
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I don’t doubt that to be true, but I wonder if we are misappropriating the cryptocurrency label to app platform coins, since currency/SoV/neo-gold is less their purpose versus unit of account/oil for the engine? The old digital oil vs digital gold comparison.
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Proof of Stake systems needs to be highly valuable to be secure. Only Store of Value cryptoassets will be highly valuable. For PoS ETH to be secure, it needs to become a Store of Value, otherwise it will not be secure. Why do you think they are even discussing a hard cap?:)
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Highly valuable seems to be a subjective measure vs. “valuable enough to deter bad actors.” In realty we don’t know what price point makes PoS ETH secure enough. It’s worth testing, no? Also, the monetary policy under Casper *should* be more conducive to supporting ETH as a SoV.
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It’s worth testing for sure. I am excited to see the free market play out. Simply expressing the view that the currenty priced probability of ETH beating BTC for SoV being at 45% might be a bit too high.
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2) Gresham's Law, in plain English: People hold onto that which is appreciating, and depart with that which is depreciating. Considering its current and future potential as a SoV, I don't see BTC becoming a MoE. I wouldn't buy my latte with my Apple/Google stock in 2002 either
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3) Thus, 'only one big monetary cryptocurrency winner' excludes silver as a MoE to golds SoV. IMHO, in the future, we'll Hodl BTC as an immutable & permissionless SoV and convert it via DeX into a privacy coin for MoE. Build it, and they will come!
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1) Gold, silver and other metals evolved spontaneously in the market as MoE and SoV, but gold clearly won the SoV (due to its greater scarcity?) Hypothesis: due to the value increase of gold over time, other metals evolved to serve the function of MoE. Analogous with cryptos?
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supply) digital coin to become “Money” or “Currency”, it needs to be 1) liquid, 2) stable, 3) disincentives to spend (when the mcap is small) lessened.