So what will ETH do? They need to increase the gas limit. The gas limit acts as regulation on usage to prevent tragedy of the block space commons which hurts full nodes as the block size exponentially scales They have to raise this cap to ensure the narrative doesnt break
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Apps also have a concept of DAUs — daily active users. ETH dApps need to enable *daily* usage to ensure virality. Some back of the envelope math: if 10 apps launch with 50k DAUs, ETH will need to raise gas limit 4.3x to acct for them. That's just 10 modestly successful apps...pic.twitter.com/fiR2cD4gZV
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To save the dApp plaform narrative, ETH will raise blocksize, further centralizing the validating nodes. The problem is as people realize that ETH isn't architecturally decentralized any longer, the decentralized narrative and their value prop will also start to die...
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EOS recognized this is where the space is going: many users don't necessarily care about architectural decentralization and "sound money" so why not embrace it, lower fees and pay through inflation. I dont think this can last, but it can definitely take ETH market share
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The last challenge: what happens if miners don’t play ball w. gas increase? 2 scenarios below: The 10mm gas limit has a lower price / gwei, but also reduces miner revenue despite the qty increase. If miners cap gas limit at 8mm, they could hypothetically increase rev...pic.twitter.com/sM2nWBOpzf
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Talk about a rock and a hard place. I see a few scenarios 1. dApps launch, fees rise, block size is raised further and nodes continue to centralize 2. dApps launch, fees rise, block size isn't raised (or not fast enough) and apps go elsewhere 3. dApps never launch on ETH
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Replying to @BMBernstein
Here’s a scenario that makes sense to me buy keep ETH relevant for at least the medium term. Dapps either launch and go elsewhere or never launch.
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Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe @BMBernstein
Whole push for consumer facing dapps feels all the consumer web guys showed up with the only tool they knew and tried to craft it onto a public blockchain even though it wasnt a good fit. But…
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Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe @BMBernstein
Higher fees could still make sense for just a decentralized financial system. It seems like you could rebuild. Lot of existing financial infrastructure using Ethereum and even with high gas costs, it is still cheaper and more censorship resistant
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Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe @BMBernstein
In the long run, ETH would have to act as sound money or people would leave but that seems like it will take a while to play out.
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If ETH doesn’t become seen as sound money in the short-medium term the future is suspect. PoS systems need to be highly valuable to be highly secure. Only SoV will be highly valuable. But to be a SoV you need to be highly secure. If BTC and ETH prices diverge, not good for ETH.
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