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2. Their analysis: the Taliban-ISKP rural fight was largely turf-war of resources & territory. In urban centers/Kabul: Haqqanis had monopoly for years, the drop in their claimed attacks (Anas in jail) coincided with rise in ISKP-claimed attacks..facilitating networks overlapped
3. The point: a lot of this violence is happening in space of mistrust & blurred lines. The Taliban in return see pockets of ISKP in rural areas propped by Afghan/US to undermine them. Until there's binding ceasefire from both sides, blurred lines will continue to be exploited.
4. Our analysis from last year: how, even if Taliban are fighting ISKP in the east, the overlap with their human resource & routes & cross-border flow from Pakistan would remain a hugely complicated spoiling factor in a peace effort of mistrust:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/20/world/asia/isis-afghanistan-peace.html …
1)#Taliban don't have control over all of its middle rank commanders, specially hardliners.
2)Taliban can not guarantee of keeping all of its affiliates to not shift their loyalty to IS-K.
3) insurgency in Afg has been fueled by money, drugs and ideology from abroad.
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