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1. "Violence reduction" -- what could that look like during the "test period" in the lead up to a US-Taliban signing deal, and in the next phase when Afghan sides sit for what's expected to be long, complicated negotiations? We have some details.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/us-taliban-peace-afghanistan.html …
2. In a long war that's so layered -- so mixed with local feuds & regional rivalries & illicit economies -- the test period on "reduction of violence" is going to be difficult. Questions remain: what are monitoring mechanisms? What are realistic compliance rates/expectations?
3. The 7-day "test period" before the signing seems close to cease-fire without calling it one, with Taliban reserving some exceptions (as we detail). The uncertainty: whether same/relaxed/stricter standards of "violence reduction" apply in next phase, aft US-Taliban sign deal?
4. Just how complicated implementing a negotiated "violence reduction" is: a small experiment in Zabul around the Anas Haqqani prisoner swap offered some lessons. The sides were supposed to hold fire in three districts. But there was tremendous confusion. And it was breached.
5. So a test of all sides' control over their ranks before US-Taliban sign deal and move this to next phase will happen in a battlefield complicated with factional & regional influences, local feuds, mafia interests.
@FatmaFaizi @NajimRah @Taimoornyt
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/us-taliban-peace-afghanistan.html …pic.twitter.com/YqTIFdHd12
6. That the debate around "what form cessation of violence takes" has dragged so long means it has left confusion also. One concern at top of Afghan gov: US rush to launch doesn't appreciate how much work & time required to get that precise clarity down the chain to lowest units
7. On the other hand, the rush is: this peace process needs to move to its next phase soon if we are to avoid what’d be another deadly & intense spring fighting season. So, the early stages of this peace process always going to be balancing act between urgency & thinking through.
I am praying people will get it right this time finally.
Reduction of violence ? It is like asking Devil 'Shaitaan' (Pakistan) to go to mosque or for Hajj.. Pakistan must be punished that is the only solution.
But our Afg Government (Gahni) said this multiple times that I will send 2 hajj
those who's family members died.
On 1 hand V asking punishment 4 them but on other hand our Gov sold our country
to them.
Oh Allah guide us & protect us from those who have ill feelings 4 our pic.twitter.com/SGNhbFsDA0
Surely, the peace deal will sign. it ia just face saving.but hopefully voilance will be reduce.after 19 yrs of long war Afg need peace & everyone must support this peace deal
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