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to make decisions that they might otherwise not. For instance, pressure to reopen the economy would be far less if the federal commitment to small businesses and their employees had been greater. I'm also not a typical politician. I dislike blatant opportunism. (For example,
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jumping in a U.S. Senate race only after the stock market has crashed, a global pandemic has set in, the incumbent's approval numbers have weakened, and a "palatable" moderate has been confirmed as the presumptive presidential nominee.) But one gap is clear, based on the
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Governor's own COVID-19 dashboard (see attached): the number of tests administered in Montana has been less than 12,000, equating to a roughly 1% test rate in our state. Moreover, the tests have apparently been limited to virus testing - versus antibodies testing, which can
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identify those previously infected. (By some estimates, 30% of virus tests yield erroneous results, false negatives or false positives.) In turn, we know the scope of tested symptomatic virus carriers in Montana, while having little to no grasp of asymptomatic virus carriers,
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untested symptomatic virus carriers, or those previously infected and recovered. Summary to date: - 1.14% tested in Montana - Potentially, 30% test inaccuracy - Little to no antibodies testing It's tough to second guess someone when there is such asymmetry in information. As
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a common citizen, I am not privy to all of the data. But, it's difficult to see the wisdom in opening up Montana's economy and our schools, independent of social distancing (given the tenacity of the virus in the air and on surfaces), without more virus testing, antibodies
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testing, infrastructure to contact trace, and understanding of asymptomatic carriers. I'd strongly recommend waiting until late May or early June (given 28 March Stay at Home order) - or later if new information affects that decision - before moving into "Phase One" of
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reopening Montana. (There's a basis for this: for the median-size family staying at home, that would give the virus ample time to transmit member-to-member and to manifest symptoms prior to contact with others.) By late May or early June, additional testing could occur,
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contact tracing capacity could be built out, and we could learn more on asymptomatic carriers and how long they can shed the virus (important but yet unknown). Finally, out-of-state
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workers - for instance, for the questionable Keystone XL oil pipeline - could be told to stand down.
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End of conversation
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