Thoughts on the Trump presidency, the coronavirus, and the worst stock market crash since Black Monday, 1987: - Let's, as Democrats, not focus on the recent stock market crash. Contrary to most, the stock market could come roaring back, stronger than ever. Three reasons:
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1) Oil's fall, to which the market has become increasingly correlated, was based more on oversupply than loss of demand. That could change, literally any day, if OPEC+ decide to cut production. It could also change if U.S. production targets are not met, increasingly likely.
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Lastly, it could change if Russia/Saudi Arabia deem that a Trump presidency is in their best interests - highly likely. 2) The coronavirus will indeed wreak havoc on the economy and markets. But opportunistic investors (large hedge funds, mutual funds, and sovereign wealth
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funds) could create a price floor that is non-correlative to fundamentals on the medium-term bet that life, eventually, will go on, with fallout manageable. 3) Short squeeze. Many big players are betting against stocks, presuming continued panic and dislocation in the economy.
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While they could well be right, if they are not, they will struggle to "cover" their short positions and the market could spike upwards and attain, however temporarily, record highs, for which Trump would take credit. - In other words, Trump wasn't at all wise to focus so
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much on the stock market, which has now dropped precipitously. Nor should Democrats looking to take down Trump in November - a lifetime away in market terms - return the favor by focusing on a heavily corrected market, which could perform an equally dramatic turn around before
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the election.
- Let's rather focus on what is clear: the economy is not working for the vast majority of Americans. No matter what the stock market does, that will remain truth. #mtpol
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