58/ Issue is that Alex's data is cohort data, not a time series. He's picking the 30-40% of immigrants who do choose to become citizens and showing that they're SLIGHTLY MORE SOCIALIST than natives...and ignores the other 60-70%. Also >>> https://twitter.com/ap_janakiraman/status/993575223411654656 …
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71/
@AlexNowrasteh I was reviewing the thread and realized I still haven't gotten an answer to the one question I was asking. Care to answer?https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/993506396758073344 …Show this thread -
72/ They matter because their CHILDREN are citizens and vote, and
@AlexNowrasteh 's data shows that they vote for bigger government and more taxes. Not until the FOURTH generation do they vote like natives So every immigrant creates 100 years of D voteshttps://twitter.com/mandatum1979/status/993662202329620480?s=19 …Show this thread -
73/ It's not a 3% difference; it's more like 20+%. ...and I'm not asking for a "safe space" free of bad opinions. I'm asking that
@AlexNowrasteh and@CatoInstitute not import socialist voters who will raise my taxes and increase gov. Different thing. https://twitter.com/charliesixtwo/status/993678936428204032?s=19 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
74/ You keep saying that,
@AlexNowrasteh, but it's not true. My criticisms were all entirely correct. See figures 9, 12, 18, and 20 in your whitepaper. cc @DaytimeRenegade, @kaijubushi,@mgcat,@ne_8686https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993865679643299841 …Show this thread -
75/
@AlexNowrasteh your one defense is "look at figure 18, and look ONLY at the immigrants who become citizens...they're not so bad". My rebuttal: that's a subset of all immigrants. ON AVERAGE, immigrants want much more taxation and redistribution...AND SO DO THEIR CHILDREN!Show this thread -
76/
@AlexNowrasteh let's refer back to YOUR OWN WHITE PAPER again, specifically figures 3 and 4. Figure 4 shows that about 16% of natives are "strong democrats". Figure 3 shows that 11% of non-citizens natives and 20% of citizen natives are strong dems.pic.twitter.com/esQZT0JtzV
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77/ You keep arguing as if this is time-series data, not cohort data (which it is). Fine. I give up on explaining the difference to you, but let's just assume you're correct. If so, then your policy of giving immigrants citizenship makes them MORE socialist, not less!
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78/ So we have natives who are 16% "strong Dems". And then we have your 1st generation citizen immigrants who are 20% strong Dems...even three generations later. The difference between 16% and 20% means that these people are 25% more likely to be hardcore socialists.
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79/ Don't want to look just at the hardline leftists, but at the softer Hillary-Clinton mainstream lefties? YOUR OWN DATA shows 16% of natives in the "not strong (D)" category. 1st gen citizen immigrants? 23% 2nd gen? 22% 3rd gen? 17% 16 vs 23 is 43% increase.
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80/ So,
@AlexNowrasteh YOUR OWN DATA shows that: * 1st generation citizen immigrants are 25% more likely to be "strong D" * 1st generation citizen immigrants are 43% more likely to be "not strong (D)" * 2nd gen are 40% more likely to be "not strong (D)" * 3rd gen are 8% moreShow this thread -
81/ In short, YOUR OWN DATA shows that immigrants push the electorate to the left for 3+ generations. Point blank question: do you agree or disagree with this? Don't tell me "read the report" Don't say "you misunderstand" Just answer the question: do immigrants push us left?
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82/ yes or no simple question,
@AlexNowrasteh and@CatoInstitute Does the data from the GSS that you use in your whitepaper demonstrate that immigrants, their children, and their grandchildren vote further left than natives? yes or nohttps://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/immigrants-assimilate-political-mainstream …Show this thread -
83/ You are incorrect. If X is 1% likely to happen and doing thing Y changes that to making it 2% likely, we say that Y "doubles the chances". When I said that X's are "25% more likely to Z than Y's are to Z", I was using the correct phrasing.https://twitter.com/SpikerIsAwesome/status/993880410269585408 …
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84/ I'm in. What say you,
@AlexNowrasteh &@CatoInstitute ? https://twitter.com/Ornery_Opinions/status/993900206671282176 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
85/ The diff isn't a mere 3%. 1st gen immigrants (citizens) are 25% more likely to be strong D. ...and 43% more likely to be soft D. 2nd gen are 40% more likely to be soft D. 3rd gen are 8% more likely to be soft D. This is huge; will flip elections. https://twitter.com/charliesixtwo/status/993907583135244289 …
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86/ as for argument "Obama got elected in 2008" ... so what? You're basically saying "we already vote hard left...so what's more hard leftism?" Voters repudiated Obama by electing Trump instead of Obama-endorsed HRC. ...and it was close! The closeness means margins matter!
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87/ Finally,
@charliesixtwo , whether "nearly 100%" of people want to use gov to reduce income inequality" doesn't matter when we have data on whether people want gov to be MORE or LESS active in doing so. Right now it's evenly split. More immigrants means more redistribution.Show this thread -
88/ And you and
@AlexNowrasteh and other progs want MORE redistribution, so you want more immigrants. We get that. ...and we disagree.Show this thread -
89/
@AlexNowrasteh claims to have muted me (I don't think he has, but that's neither here nor there). Folks, do me this favor: @ him & ask simple question "do first gen immigrants vote for Dems more than natives - yes or no?" If you're feeling frisky, ask the same re 2nd gen.https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993872393310539780 …Show this thread -
90/ I'm not "preemptively attacking" anyone - I'm just expressing my preference that groups that on average want more socialism should not be brought into the country and given political power. As far as opposing socialists already here - yes, I do that https://twitter.com/charliesixtwo/status/993913140273393664 …
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91/ As far as the fact that some ethnic groups already here lean heavily socialist - well, that helps make my point and destroy yours, doesn't it? If we had not encouraged group X and Y and Z to come here, we'd have lower taxes and socialism today. We agree!
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92/ This does not lead me to be antihispanic or antisemitic. I'm capable of disaggregation. I oppose the socialists and welcome the the help of the libertarians, of group X and Y and Z. That, however, is consistent with not bringing in more socialists.
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93/ Oh, fun!
@reason and@VolokhC have picked up on how@AlexNowrasteh and@CatoInstitute presented data that said that immigration is bad for liberty and then falsely characterized it as saying immigration is good for liberty. You're big time, Alex!https://twitter.com/MarkSKrikorian/status/993923890509418498 …Show this thread -
94/
@AlexNowrasteh 's underwhelming response to@VolokhC and@reason :https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993925049462779904 …Show this thread -
95/ let's dig into
@AlexNowrasteh 's first link Interestingly, he doesn't deny that the data says that immigrants lean anti-liberty (as he did in his thread with me). He does brush it aside, though, with 5 rationalizations:Show this thread -
96/ 1) "...but immigration is good!" which...
2) "muh tacos!"
3) "yes, they're socialists...but the difference is 2.75 vs 3.18 on a 5 point scale, so only a difference of 8.6% of scale range, so MAYBE won't tip elections"
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97/ 4) Natives in Berkeley are even more commie than new immigrants, so what's the harm in shifting things towards more socialism if we've already got commies here? 5) we only suffer the political consequences (higher taxes & more regulation) for 80 or 100 years, so NBD >>>
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98/ oh, I misread - he has more "rebuttals" 6) sure, they're commies, but they don't vote (which is good news, I guess, until you realize that (a) their kids and grandkids are also leftists and DO vote, (b) Dems are good at get-out-the-vote organizing >>>
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