46/
Clarkhat was great. Can't wait to see him again at HUN V and compare notes about debating @AlexNowrasteh , maybe get a few tips.
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57/ I didn't misread anything,
@AlexNowrasteh . YOUR OWN GRAPHS show that immigrants - even the non-representative sub-sample that choose to become citizens - vote for more taxes and more welfare than do natives. You muted me because you got embarrassed and couldn't refute.https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993572462016303104 …Show this thread -
58/ Issue is that Alex's data is cohort data, not a time series. He's picking the 30-40% of immigrants who do choose to become citizens and showing that they're SLIGHTLY MORE SOCIALIST than natives...and ignores the other 60-70%. Also >>> https://twitter.com/ap_janakiraman/status/993575223411654656 …
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59/ In other tables he shows that 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants (who are citizens by birthright) are markedly more socialist than natives. So immigration tends to create 2-3 generations of socialists citizen voters.
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60/ I liked to it three different times,
@AlexNowrasteh. Let's go for four, shall we? https://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/immigrants-assimilate-political-mainstream …https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993575236883886080 …Show this thread -
61/ In his last 6 tweets, Alex has complained: - he's muted me because I tweet too much - I "rarely" link to his URL (just 3 times in 55 tweets)
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62/ Alex, I read the OED for fun. I am able to answer nerd questions like "what's a trigraph in the C programming language?" because I read the appendices. I read your paper. I READ THE DAMNED FOOTNOTES and went off and looked up some of the sources.https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993583047118413824 …
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63/ So you're saying that my point that ON AVERAGE immigrants are markedly more socialist than natives is in your paper? Yes, agreed. I found it at several points in there. The only thing I'm asking is: given that, why do you support immigration? >>>https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993585292325064704 …
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64/ ...and why do you title your paper "Immigrants Assimilate into the Political Mainstream" when your own data shows that they don't, their children don't, their GRAND children don't...and their great grandchildren do?
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65/ Also, on a tangent: it's kind of tautological to say that "the 4th generation assimilates into the political mainstream", because by the fourth generation the ARE the polity. The great grandkids of Irish in 1920 are mainstream? OF COURSE WE ARE, we make up 10% of pop.
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66/ So in the same way, I am absolutely sure that the great grandchildren of Syrians brought into the US in 2018 will be part of the mainstream culture in 2090 Who knows - they might support clitorectomies, which - by dint of popular support - is on the platform of both parties
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67/ Or perhaps they'll support socialism...which might very well be in the mainstream with 50% of people in 2090 supporting it. Your paper is titled "Immigrants Assimilate into the Political Mainstream" and NOT "Immigrants Assimilate into the Small Gov / Pro Liberty politics"
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68/ No, I didn't. I spoke over and over of "immigrants". I didn't say anything about "citizens" or "non citizens".https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993586359079227395 …
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71/
@AlexNowrasteh I was reviewing the thread and realized I still haven't gotten an answer to the one question I was asking. Care to answer?https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/993506396758073344 …Show this thread -
72/ They matter because their CHILDREN are citizens and vote, and
@AlexNowrasteh 's data shows that they vote for bigger government and more taxes. Not until the FOURTH generation do they vote like natives So every immigrant creates 100 years of D voteshttps://twitter.com/mandatum1979/status/993662202329620480?s=19 …Show this thread -
73/ It's not a 3% difference; it's more like 20+%. ...and I'm not asking for a "safe space" free of bad opinions. I'm asking that
@AlexNowrasteh and@CatoInstitute not import socialist voters who will raise my taxes and increase gov. Different thing. https://twitter.com/charliesixtwo/status/993678936428204032?s=19 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
74/ You keep saying that,
@AlexNowrasteh, but it's not true. My criticisms were all entirely correct. See figures 9, 12, 18, and 20 in your whitepaper. cc @DaytimeRenegade, @kaijubushi,@mgcat,@ne_8686https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993865679643299841 …Show this thread -
75/
@AlexNowrasteh your one defense is "look at figure 18, and look ONLY at the immigrants who become citizens...they're not so bad". My rebuttal: that's a subset of all immigrants. ON AVERAGE, immigrants want much more taxation and redistribution...AND SO DO THEIR CHILDREN!Show this thread -
76/
@AlexNowrasteh let's refer back to YOUR OWN WHITE PAPER again, specifically figures 3 and 4. Figure 4 shows that about 16% of natives are "strong democrats". Figure 3 shows that 11% of non-citizens natives and 20% of citizen natives are strong dems.pic.twitter.com/esQZT0JtzV
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77/ You keep arguing as if this is time-series data, not cohort data (which it is). Fine. I give up on explaining the difference to you, but let's just assume you're correct. If so, then your policy of giving immigrants citizenship makes them MORE socialist, not less!
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78/ So we have natives who are 16% "strong Dems". And then we have your 1st generation citizen immigrants who are 20% strong Dems...even three generations later. The difference between 16% and 20% means that these people are 25% more likely to be hardcore socialists.
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79/ Don't want to look just at the hardline leftists, but at the softer Hillary-Clinton mainstream lefties? YOUR OWN DATA shows 16% of natives in the "not strong (D)" category. 1st gen citizen immigrants? 23% 2nd gen? 22% 3rd gen? 17% 16 vs 23 is 43% increase.
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80/ So,
@AlexNowrasteh YOUR OWN DATA shows that: * 1st generation citizen immigrants are 25% more likely to be "strong D" * 1st generation citizen immigrants are 43% more likely to be "not strong (D)" * 2nd gen are 40% more likely to be "not strong (D)" * 3rd gen are 8% moreShow this thread -
81/ In short, YOUR OWN DATA shows that immigrants push the electorate to the left for 3+ generations. Point blank question: do you agree or disagree with this? Don't tell me "read the report" Don't say "you misunderstand" Just answer the question: do immigrants push us left?
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82/ yes or no simple question,
@AlexNowrasteh and@CatoInstitute Does the data from the GSS that you use in your whitepaper demonstrate that immigrants, their children, and their grandchildren vote further left than natives? yes or nohttps://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/immigrants-assimilate-political-mainstream …Show this thread -
83/ You are incorrect. If X is 1% likely to happen and doing thing Y changes that to making it 2% likely, we say that Y "doubles the chances". When I said that X's are "25% more likely to Z than Y's are to Z", I was using the correct phrasing.https://twitter.com/SpikerIsAwesome/status/993880410269585408 …
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84/ I'm in. What say you,
@AlexNowrasteh &@CatoInstitute ? https://twitter.com/Ornery_Opinions/status/993900206671282176 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
85/ The diff isn't a mere 3%. 1st gen immigrants (citizens) are 25% more likely to be strong D. ...and 43% more likely to be soft D. 2nd gen are 40% more likely to be soft D. 3rd gen are 8% more likely to be soft D. This is huge; will flip elections. https://twitter.com/charliesixtwo/status/993907583135244289 …
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86/ as for argument "Obama got elected in 2008" ... so what? You're basically saying "we already vote hard left...so what's more hard leftism?" Voters repudiated Obama by electing Trump instead of Obama-endorsed HRC. ...and it was close! The closeness means margins matter!
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