37/ So here is my question: looking at figure 18 (the one you are calling our attention to), it looks like immigrants are 30% more likely to want much more government action to redistribute wealth. Am I misreading your graph?
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51/ we don't IGNORE it,
@AlexNowrasteh - we are INTERESTED in it. That's why we keep asking for cites. What page in the white paper? What figure?https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993518379796443137 …Show this thread -
52/ Aha! OK, this is a valid answer. Thank you!https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993518615180861440 …
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53/ The problem is that there's selection bias. What you're saying is that of the entire population of immigrants, slice X is comparable to natives, but slice Y is not. OK, great. Two objections: 1) it's incorrect.
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54/ Look at your own figure 18. Left cluster: 20% of natives want government to reduce income differences, 23% of citizen immigrants so. Right cluster: 14% of natives prefer no gov action. 7% of citizen immigrants do These gaps are noticeable and have real policy implications!
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55/ Second objection: this is selection bias! You have not proven that waving a wand at an immigrant makes them only 23% likely to want income redistribution (as compared to a native at 20%).
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56/ You have proven that THOSE IMMIGRANTS WHO have the means / patience / education / lawyer fees to become citizens are only slightly more socialist than natives. A South African doctor is not a Mexican farm worker. "becomes citizen" is a filter.
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57/ I didn't misread anything,
@AlexNowrasteh . YOUR OWN GRAPHS show that immigrants - even the non-representative sub-sample that choose to become citizens - vote for more taxes and more welfare than do natives. You muted me because you got embarrassed and couldn't refute.https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993572462016303104 …Show this thread -
58/ Issue is that Alex's data is cohort data, not a time series. He's picking the 30-40% of immigrants who do choose to become citizens and showing that they're SLIGHTLY MORE SOCIALIST than natives...and ignores the other 60-70%. Also >>> https://twitter.com/ap_janakiraman/status/993575223411654656 …
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59/ In other tables he shows that 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants (who are citizens by birthright) are markedly more socialist than natives. So immigration tends to create 2-3 generations of socialists citizen voters.
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60/ I liked to it three different times,
@AlexNowrasteh. Let's go for four, shall we? https://www.cato.org/publications/economic-development-bulletin/immigrants-assimilate-political-mainstream …https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993575236883886080 …Show this thread -
61/ In his last 6 tweets, Alex has complained: - he's muted me because I tweet too much - I "rarely" link to his URL (just 3 times in 55 tweets)
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62/ Alex, I read the OED for fun. I am able to answer nerd questions like "what's a trigraph in the C programming language?" because I read the appendices. I read your paper. I READ THE DAMNED FOOTNOTES and went off and looked up some of the sources.https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993583047118413824 …
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63/ So you're saying that my point that ON AVERAGE immigrants are markedly more socialist than natives is in your paper? Yes, agreed. I found it at several points in there. The only thing I'm asking is: given that, why do you support immigration? >>>https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993585292325064704 …
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64/ ...and why do you title your paper "Immigrants Assimilate into the Political Mainstream" when your own data shows that they don't, their children don't, their GRAND children don't...and their great grandchildren do?
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65/ Also, on a tangent: it's kind of tautological to say that "the 4th generation assimilates into the political mainstream", because by the fourth generation the ARE the polity. The great grandkids of Irish in 1920 are mainstream? OF COURSE WE ARE, we make up 10% of pop.
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66/ So in the same way, I am absolutely sure that the great grandchildren of Syrians brought into the US in 2018 will be part of the mainstream culture in 2090 Who knows - they might support clitorectomies, which - by dint of popular support - is on the platform of both parties
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67/ Or perhaps they'll support socialism...which might very well be in the mainstream with 50% of people in 2090 supporting it. Your paper is titled "Immigrants Assimilate into the Political Mainstream" and NOT "Immigrants Assimilate into the Small Gov / Pro Liberty politics"
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68/ No, I didn't. I spoke over and over of "immigrants". I didn't say anything about "citizens" or "non citizens".https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993586359079227395 …
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71/
@AlexNowrasteh I was reviewing the thread and realized I still haven't gotten an answer to the one question I was asking. Care to answer?https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/993506396758073344 …Show this thread -
72/ They matter because their CHILDREN are citizens and vote, and
@AlexNowrasteh 's data shows that they vote for bigger government and more taxes. Not until the FOURTH generation do they vote like natives So every immigrant creates 100 years of D voteshttps://twitter.com/mandatum1979/status/993662202329620480?s=19 …Show this thread -
73/ It's not a 3% difference; it's more like 20+%. ...and I'm not asking for a "safe space" free of bad opinions. I'm asking that
@AlexNowrasteh and@CatoInstitute not import socialist voters who will raise my taxes and increase gov. Different thing. https://twitter.com/charliesixtwo/status/993678936428204032?s=19 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
74/ You keep saying that,
@AlexNowrasteh, but it's not true. My criticisms were all entirely correct. See figures 9, 12, 18, and 20 in your whitepaper. cc @DaytimeRenegade, @kaijubushi,@mgcat,@ne_8686https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/993865679643299841 …Show this thread -
75/
@AlexNowrasteh your one defense is "look at figure 18, and look ONLY at the immigrants who become citizens...they're not so bad". My rebuttal: that's a subset of all immigrants. ON AVERAGE, immigrants want much more taxation and redistribution...AND SO DO THEIR CHILDREN!Show this thread -
76/
@AlexNowrasteh let's refer back to YOUR OWN WHITE PAPER again, specifically figures 3 and 4. Figure 4 shows that about 16% of natives are "strong democrats". Figure 3 shows that 11% of non-citizens natives and 20% of citizen natives are strong dems.pic.twitter.com/esQZT0JtzV
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77/ You keep arguing as if this is time-series data, not cohort data (which it is). Fine. I give up on explaining the difference to you, but let's just assume you're correct. If so, then your policy of giving immigrants citizenship makes them MORE socialist, not less!
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