2/ If, every year for the last 50, Congress had votes on a careful control set of bills that were identical from year to year, and no one tried to game the system, yes, we could have some decent basis for saying "80% of D were in favor of free speech then, and now 80% still are
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3/ ...but also, 80% of R were back then, but now only 20% of R are, so we know that R tribe has moved in XYZ direction on this. However, using calibration vote #2, we see that ..."
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4/ However, we do NOT have identical calibration votes year after year after year. ...so we have to resort to tools to ATTEMPT to stitch together voting records In year X, these 100 senators voted thusly on A, in year X+1, a partially overlapping 100 senators voted thusly on B
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5/ So...a model is used. Assumptions are made. Models can be useful...but they are just models. Anyone can make one. Have you read Spatial Models of Parliamentary Voting? https://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521617475 … I haven't. I don't know its strengths and weaknesses.
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6/ I haven't read critiques of it in the literature. We don't validate every piece of data we use - we have to trust, sometimes. ...but in a highly politicized world, you're asking me to trust one academic, whose views are trumpeted by ideologues? No.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLlCQQW46DA …
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Hard to know what precisely caused a no vote on a bill. Both sides put poison pills in them on purpose to generate talking points they can use against each other later. "How could you vote against Fluffy Puppies for Everyone!" "Policy X in it impoverishes my constituency."
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I mean they literally accepted weed and gay marriage. Early 00's democrats still made fun of gay people so I'm not really sure how that comes out.
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this must not be based on social issues because republicans have drifted left while democrats have done a 90 degree turn
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"Democrats have wanted <insert commie program here> for ~50 years, so you see, they haven't shifted at all, even if opposition to commie programs has increased over those years"
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