That dude has so thoroughly beclowned himself I find myself reconsidering any position I might share with him
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welp if you're looking for a signal that Ukraine is going to lose, Roko "leeroy dunning-kruger jenkins" piping up on the other side of that bet is it damn shame
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that's why I was so bullish when I saw him shitting on urbit
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So many assumptions in the thread..not good enough
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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1/ I've been following Tom Kratman's running narration of the war, so this is mostly his opinion relayed through me. But what he's been saying is that Ukraine continues to lose badly. I will thread out some of the items that appear to counter OP's points.
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2/ His take is Russian advances in some areas are stalled, and in other areas, continuing to proceed pretty rapidly. He thinks pro-Ukrainian propaganda is hiding the full extent of the damage.
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Hmmm. I think Ukraine’s conventional military is hosed. They are mostly in the south, and they risk getting blocked off from helping Kyiv. That doesn’t mean Russia wins, because Ukraine can keep harassing them and their long logistics lines all the way back to the border, but…
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Russia deciding F it and going all artillery is absolutely possible, so basically it will be an ungovernable mess, at least to the Dniepr, and unless they retreat they can’t be kicked out without WWIII, because no conventional military.
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maybe in 20 years
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