the idea that price information propogates via physical transmission is incorrect if it was announced today that there would be no harvest in 2023, food prices would spike immediately, today markets always pull information about the future into prices in the present. https://twitter.com/LibertyLockPod/status/1502203572095799299 …
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“Markets set price to clear inventory” works pretty well when the supply is steady and predictable. “I have no idea what kind of hell I’m going to have to go through to secure inventory” is juuust a bit outside of that.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I think you could argue that in an efficient market the price now is the best estimation of the EV of a range of future outcomes, discounted by the risk free rate.
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*marked up by risk free rate, sorry.
End of conversation
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