1/ I've been saying for a decade or so (actually, longer than that - the gov shut down my blog 11 yrs ago, and I was saying it there) that I think that not only is the human propensity for violence constant, but the AMOUNT of violence is constant, but we're noise-shaping it >>>https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/1499367434150682631 …
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3/ a certain SIZE of war. During the Cold War we had small 2,000 person brushfire wars, and we had 4M man proxy wars (e.g. Vietnam, Korea), but we had no 40M - 400M man world wars. ...but, I assert, all of that energy that should be in the violence spectrum is just being moved
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4/ ...to elsewhere in the power law. Instead of a 10% chance of a 4M man war every year and a 1% chance of a 40M man war every year, we've shifted it to * 1% chance of 4M man war * 0% chance of 40M man war * 0% chance of 400M man war * 1% chance of 4B man war <-- new
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