I agree with this, but I have a caveat: political jockeying never ends. Once 80% of elites have established a coalition that controls the heights ... you get the same incentives to defect/fight INSIDE the coalition as used to exist between coalitions.https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1488903007408373766 …
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9/ ...which theoretically had policy disagreements, but which actually were just different coalitions scrabbling for the brass ring. You see these sub-coalitional politics inside deep blue US cities right now - the actual election of Dem vs R is entirely laughable/ foregone
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10/ ...and all of the real action is in the primaries, where the coalitions jockey. Institutions have a general pattern of moving meaning out of one ritual and placing the meaning and power into another ritual...and eventually the first one withers. In the world of my novels
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11/ ...if things continued, you could imagine that in another 100 years the Dem primaries might happen on the same day as election day, and the ballot forms, beneath the "choose your favorite Dem in the primary" section, would have a vestigial D vs R which would be premarked "D"
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