2/ a manifold is a shape in a 3-d graph, where the "floor" contains the X and Y axis, and you "pick" some X and some Y, and these get mapped to some altitude Z above the floor [ z is a function of x and y ; f(x,y) = z ] if you look at all x and all y, the output is >>>
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5/ most functions you play with in math class have one output if f(x,y) = 2x + y + 3 then above the location on the "floor" (2,9) the function has a single value however, some functions have more than one solution... f(x,y) = sqrt(x) + y has 1 solution at (0, 12)
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6/ ...but has 2 solutions at (4,12) ...because 2^2 = 4 and -2^4, so the two solutions of f(x,y) = sqrt(x) + y at (4,12) are 2 + 12 = 14 and -2 + 12 = 10
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7/ so let's imagine that we discover some function that describes the standard of living of members of a society. The output of the function, standard of living, is 'z' and the inputs are, I dunno, average education level + access to oil (in reality the function will have ...
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8/ ...thousands of inputs) so anyway, in this simple model, we see the manifold floating over the plane ... but if the function can have multiple values, we will see either multiple sheets floating one above the next, or one sheet that has kinks and folds
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9/ ...and the scary AF thing is that there might be some sort of path-dependent approach where we started back in 1800 at a certain place on the graph and stepwise moved in both X and Y steps...and climbed up to a place on the graph that is very tall...but also is folded ...
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10/ and we are near a precipice where the sheet does not continue in the same direction. Right now, perhaps, there are 2 or 3 or 12 possible values for our current state X,Y ... but if we take a small step to X+1, Y we might be in a spot where we "fall" a long way...and then...
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11/ we can not step back one step to X,Y because when we do so, we are no longer at the topmost possible value of the multi-valued function, but are at a much lower tier one simple example of this concept is what if we built technology A, then with that B, then with that C ...
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12/ ...and eventually we get up to Q, and we still remember the predecessor technology P, but have forgotten the details of A through O. If we choose to do something to destroy Q, we may be screwed, and have to start over at A. Imagine if we threw away nuclear technology now
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13/ ...and forgot all of the details of it in a generation ...but at this point, all of the easily accessible oil and coal are gone. That's one example. There are others. I suggest that this applies in social tech as well as energy etc tech.
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14/ If you burn down the Enlightenment, or stigmatize and devalue Kegan level 4 norms ("we must all abide by the rules, such as the SCOTUS and the fillibuster, even if they hurt us in a given electoral cycle"), can we step BACK into those norms 5 or 25 years later, or >>>
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15/ ...do we have to laboriously climb the hill a second time, over 2 or 5 or 15 generations?
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19/ on my "to read list" https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Archaeology/dp/052138673X … The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology) Reprint Edition by Joseph A. Tainte
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29/ my man! this is just the one I had in mind!https://twitter.com/BenEspen/status/1483902220286316546 …
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30/ ah, wait, not EXACTLY The one, but close enough !
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