with $1M now I could retire / stop work maybe 2-3 years earlier, and the payoff of free-hours-of-life is greater than the cost, so, yeah, probablyhttps://twitter.com/eade_bengard/status/1480028451713208323 …
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3/ followup question someone posed: how many times would you take this deal? I think my answer is 2 +/- 1 one rule of thumb is that you can draw from a retirement savings account at about 4% of value, year after year after year, and run a very very low risk of ever running out
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4/ the market returns around 8% ... ON AVERAGE. So...why can't you take out 8% per year? Or even 9-10%, if your lifespan is finite? Because that's the average. Some years, it's up 15%. Other years, down 15%. So, there are models that use ~150 years of stock market returns
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5/ ...and test how often, if you randomly drop into a sequence of returns from the historical record, you run out of money. Turns out, given the US economy track record, 4% / yr is pretty darned safe. (and you'll prob grow your nest egg during the decades of retirement)
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6/ so, knowing this, you can work backwards to see how much you should have saved by the time that you retire. Each $1M you have saved = $40k/yr retirement incomes. $2M = $80k/yr $3M = $120k/yr $4M =- $160k/yr etc so, if you wanted a fairly luxurious (by middle class std)
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7/ retirement income of $200k/yr, you'd want $5M saved. (discount these numbers by a bit if you expect Social Security to be around) So, if I could take 2 years off my life for $2M right now, I could invest the $2M for 10 yrs at ~8% over inflation and, double it to $4M, retire
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8/ also, arguably w more free time (in early retirement) you could spend less time working the primary job, working the side gigs, etc etc and take long daily walks, spend more time cooking healthy food, etc...and buy back some of the time traded away
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9/ > there's lots of things that money can do for me, the big one is "it can buy time not working" my work is fun enough but ... I've got other things I want to do (write books, visit friends, etc.)https://twitter.com/Kirsten3531/status/1480286430970761218 …
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10/ further reading on 4% withdrawl rate https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates …
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End of conversation
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