1/ good thread I think that I disagree w the 2nd half of tweet #3 - I think that because software is eating the world, the demand for top tier software people is EXPLODINGhttps://twitter.com/rnewquist/status/1459542937986031621 …
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3/ you might at first think "oh, more structural engineers mean less concrete, because each one can stretch the concrete further" ...but it might also mean that structural engineers really unlock the all purpose utility of concrete, and so it gets used in more places >>>
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4/ ...and thus the demand for concrete goes UP. Software is just logic / thinking, where it's expensive to build once, but literally too cheap to meter per run thereafter, and logic / thinking is a complement to EVERYTHING under the sun. Thus "software is eating the world".
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5/ I don't see any natural limit for the demand for thinking, so I don't think that the demand for software is going to slow down any time soon - the reverse, actually, I think.https://twitter.com/rnewquist/status/1459547232168992770 …
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6/ We may get to the point where the cutting edge of software design / implementation requires a higher g than most would-be-coders have...and thus total employment may collapse ... but the DEMAND will not collapse, is my bet.
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7/ sure, but reuse is GOOD when we started producing screws on machines instead of requiring a machinist to cut each one on a lathe, or with a die, did the total demand for machinists go up or down? Up, I suspect >>>https://twitter.com/rnewquist/status/1459547932882046980 …
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8/ ...because screws are a complement to machine tools, and machine tools are a complement to machinists. Likewise, standard libraries make it POSSIBLE to solve harder problems in reasonable amounts of time, and thus the demand for software engineers has gone up.
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9/ we agree on this the market clearing price of a guy who can copy-and-paste PHP from stackexchange into a crappy 2004 Wordpress site is $20/hrhttps://twitter.com/rnewquist/status/1459548597561794566 …
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10/ ...and this, in turn, is one of the reasons that there's such an interest in "social" "justice": there's an overproduction of [ would be ] elites, and ideology is a good smoke screen to redistribute / capture some of the pay of the top 10% engineers to others w lower g.
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11/ hmm ... ADHD drugs as a method to shift the supply curve of programmer talent?
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End of conversation
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