1/
a "ledger of record" is a fascinating idea, and it ties in with @robinhanson ideas about betting markets / futarchy.
It would be QUITE interesting to have factual propositions on the blockchain, and allow people to add boolean or trinary claims re those facts to the chain >https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1459145167076663296 …
-
-
6/ You might also want to keep the information value of bets decline as they age, but keep the payoffs absolute. E.g. Betting on the 2024 POTUS election: D or R ? I put in $100 on R today, you put in $100 on D We want payoffs from the smart contract to be based on bet size...
Show this thread -
7/ but that doesn't mean that the TRUTH VALUE of the early bets needs to feed into the computation of the overall truth value. You could design multiple different truth functions based on timestamp of data points (bets). One is linear decay (c.f. depreciation models).
Show this thread -
8/ one is exponential decay another is threshold (no bets before 15 Nov 2024 count at all) Hmm...I was already interested in learning the solidity https://soliditylang.org/ smart contract language for work reasons...this might be reason #2 Damnit
@balajis, you grew my todo listShow this thread -
9/ players already in the space! Awesome! https://twitter.com/meta_nomad/status/1459149252479885314 …
This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
and an entrepreneur could set up a dominant assurance pact so that it's a no brainer for would-be participants to join and do that. free money (if you trust the pact offerer
)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Sounds like a use case for quadratic voting
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.