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a "ledger of record" is a fascinating idea, and it ties in with @robinhanson ideas about betting markets / futarchy.
It would be QUITE interesting to have factual propositions on the blockchain, and allow people to add boolean or trinary claims re those facts to the chain >https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1459145167076663296 …
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5/ if a flat-earth guy put up $1M and didn't snipe the auction, but there's still time on the clock, anyone else can come in with $20M and grab that $1M from Mr Flat for free. ...but it doesn't have to be 1 guy with $20M. Could be 20M guys w $1. Weaponize diamond hands.
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6/ You might also want to keep the information value of bets decline as they age, but keep the payoffs absolute. E.g. Betting on the 2024 POTUS election: D or R ? I put in $100 on R today, you put in $100 on D We want payoffs from the smart contract to be based on bet size...
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7/ but that doesn't mean that the TRUTH VALUE of the early bets needs to feed into the computation of the overall truth value. You could design multiple different truth functions based on timestamp of data points (bets). One is linear decay (c.f. depreciation models).
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8/ one is exponential decay another is threshold (no bets before 15 Nov 2024 count at all) Hmm...I was already interested in learning the solidity https://soliditylang.org/ smart contract language for work reasons...this might be reason #2 Damnit
@balajis, you grew my todo listShow this thread -
9/ players already in the space! Awesome! https://twitter.com/meta_nomad/status/1459149252479885314 …
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