2/ person/key Y claims re proposition X that it is { true | false | not-even-false } with weight / bet Z of course, if we're proposing moving stuff onto the chain, we can't have it loadbearing on single points of failure off the chain (e.g. "...and the NYT says so")
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3/ BTC whitepaper had the genius insight that you can adjudicate between the one true chain and false chains ... just based on popularity / consensus / work I wonder what the equivalent is here? The naive answer is "once betting goes 20:1 in a certain direction, consesus!"
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4/ That's theoretically game-able (betting on flat earth is 6%, but then some nut comes in with $1M on pro-flat-earth, sweeps the market, walks away with $50,000 bet on spherical earth), but ... maybe incentives can be tweaked? e.g.
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5/ if a flat-earth guy put up $1M and didn't snipe the auction, but there's still time on the clock, anyone else can come in with $20M and grab that $1M from Mr Flat for free. ...but it doesn't have to be 1 guy with $20M. Could be 20M guys w $1. Weaponize diamond hands.
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6/ You might also want to keep the information value of bets decline as they age, but keep the payoffs absolute. E.g. Betting on the 2024 POTUS election: D or R ? I put in $100 on R today, you put in $100 on D We want payoffs from the smart contract to be based on bet size...
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7/ but that doesn't mean that the TRUTH VALUE of the early bets needs to feed into the computation of the overall truth value. You could design multiple different truth functions based on timestamp of data points (bets). One is linear decay (c.f. depreciation models).
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8/ one is exponential decay another is threshold (no bets before 15 Nov 2024 count at all) Hmm...I was already interested in learning the solidity https://soliditylang.org/ smart contract language for work reasons...this might be reason #2 Damnit
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9/ players already in the space! Awesome! https://twitter.com/meta_nomad/status/1459149252479885314 …
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Any computer system responsible for determining facts is fallible for the simple reason that the humans who have control over said system are still very motivated to lie.
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This sounds extremely similar to the Augur DApp on Ethereum. Most impressive feature is the decentralized Oracle for resolving bets. Sadly Eth gas prices have it crippled.
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