2/ I mean "technical analysis" in the sense of "analysis of the technology", not in the sense of stock-price pareidolia.
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3/ yep, I sub to this channel and watched this video a while back I found it to be lacking It raised a valid critique about press releases ... but didn't talk about why fusion reactors can't work. Also, to date the research as all been gov run >https://twitter.com/LudditeHacker/status/1457677285792825347 …
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4/ ...and government and academic R&D projects look at expenses at a BENEFIT. Endless R&D is ideal. Look at academic/gov spacetravel vs free market (SpaceX) Look at academic/gov gene sequencing vs free market etc etc etc I think it's a decent bet.
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5/ I think the chance of Thiel, who's a genius, and who can get the absolute best technical briefings on the planet, understanding the technical constraints and opportunities better than you (or me) is 100%.https://twitter.com/Tinkzorg/status/1457678184581849098 …
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6/ yes, I agree with that the news is written by journalists who are reading press releases by academic hacks it's uselesshttps://twitter.com/LudditeHacker/status/1457679006418051074 …
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7/ absolutely Thiel bets on fusion if the payoff is high enough to justify the low chance of success. I'm not arguing that fusion is guaranteed, or will happen in 5 years. I'm arguing that Thiel is making good decisions.https://twitter.com/krishnanrohit/status/1457680093980024834 …
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8/ yes, it IS an appeal to Thiel's authority or, as I like to think of it, Bayesianism > Thiel's chances of reaching a specialized physician's level of knowledge is very low. I don't respect physicians as much as you dohttps://twitter.com/Tinkzorg/status/1457680392543248394 …
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Basically the entire thing is a lie by mixing a technical with a laypersons definition.
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I think this gets the Thiel bet wrong. The bet isn't that fusion will work, it's that fusion can work and if it does it has an outsized payoff. The bet to maximise chance of being right is "fusion won't work". The bet to maximise chance of being rich is "fusion might work".
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I think fusion will work actually. Just not in 2024.
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