A very smart friend who is not red tribe, and is not prone to hyperbole is discussing the ongoing collapse of the Mandate of Heaven, and suggested the chance of ~ 100% annual inflation as said Mandate unwinds This does not seem likely to me...but maybe normalcy bias on my part?
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4/ deflation is endemic when you have hard currency, because you can't adjust the supply to meet demand so, the Panic of 1837 is a good example of why fiat currency is Good and the Fed Reserve is Good, I'd assert not comparable to 2021https://twitter.com/wraithburn/status/1427261563317243904 …
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5/ still don't understand why we'd ever have deflation when it's trivial to solve with paper and inkhttps://twitter.com/AniRome05496357/status/1427261056485928973 …
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6/ so you're arguing that (a) deflation will happen if we pay off our credit, but (b) we will not pay off our credit, and in fact will borrow more right? so I'm again losthttps://twitter.com/wraithburn/status/1427262644566757387 …
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I voted for < 1% because I think we will be deflating, _despite_ printing buckets of money.
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Wanted to vote 5.0005% but didn't have an option

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sorry :(
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Depends how you calculate inflation which no one seems to agree on.
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I consider 25% likely as a low estimate due to three simple reasons. 1. Inflation benefits debtors at the expense of creditors. 2. The U.S. government is the world's largest debtor. 3. The U.S. government controls the creation of US$.
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