1/ as a reminder, the particular way that the Ukrainians trusted the US was giving up their nuclear weapons in 1994 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances … Kadaffi made the same mistake - gave up his WMD and then was toppled as the US stood by or even encouraged it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction … https://twitter.com/FistedBy/status/1417852880560734217 …
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2/ The US might have a coherent strategic reason for wanting to reduce WMDs in the world, but the path to doing that is a Kegan level 4 one - promising to defend regimes that do so, and then living up to that promise, even if you dislike the regime. The US's Kegan level 3 >>>
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3/ approach of "promise to follow the rules to get X, but then break the rules later because it's easier / gives you something else you want" is a sort of eating of the seedcorn, trading away our reputational capital one drip at a time. ...and that leaves USG with less ability
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4/ memo to everyone yammering about "state capacity" (e.g. "state capacity libertarians" - lol -, etc.): if you trade away your reputational capital, you have less capacity. But what do I know, I'm just a talking dog on twitter.
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