getting the anti-koof jab in 4 hrs very excited after 14 months of lockdown on the farm
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5/ Yes, I will be happy to go out with a 90% effective vaccine has reached full efficacy in a few weeks. Everything is about ROI / risk-reward, and the risk will never reach zero, but if the risk falls by 90% then the ROI is 10x better. Also ... https://twitter.com/poutinecurd/status/1382438815466422277 …
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6/ Risk has been falling / is falling for multiple reasons: * treatment protocols are much better * herd immunity is being achieved / a much lower percent of people I might encounter are likely to have it * warm weather / sunlight reduces transmission
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7/ So, I assume that the vaccine makes my risk of contracting it should I come in contact with a carrier 10% of what it would be w/o the vaccine, and I think my chances of coming into contact w a carrier are now 10% of what they were during parts of last year also >>>
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8/ with treatment protocols dialed in, and hospitals well under peak load, my chance of having serious problems should I contract the 'rona are lower as well. Call that 30% of what it was last year. so total risk = 0.3% of what it was formerly way more than good enough for me
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9/ my meta policy remains what it has always been: be aware of the unknown unknowns and give some respect to them, but other than that, use math and accept that everything comes with some risk (e.g. I'll drive 75 on the highway, but not 130)
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End of conversation
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