Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

Tweets

ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. the brave little poaster‏ @virgil_30 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP

      That’s fair I do think that about hypotheses like “God exists” it doesn’t make much sense to assign a prior But “God wants X” maybe is different I also just hate Bayesianism it’s all wrong

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @virgil_30

      > “God exists” it doesn’t make much sense to assign a prior 100% agree...but I'll generalize. Priors are useful, for human knowledge about things. There either is or is not > 100 kg of gold inside Ceres. That fact is, one presumes, already locked into the universe. >>>

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP @virgil_30

      2/ However, we humans don't know that fact. So we can talk about priors on this, but they're statements about our knowledge, not statements about reality. I thought about this a LOT in elementary school, thinking about probabilities of die rolls in progress vs completed >>>

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP @virgil_30

      3/ dice rolls that had not yet been observed. I concluded back then (and still believe) that we use the term probability for two distinct / unrelated things. When I learned about quantum uncertainty I was further convinced of this (before then I'd worried that dice rolls were

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP @virgil_30

      4/ maybe deterministic? I dunno. I was a weird kid.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. the brave little poaster‏ @virgil_30 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP

      You did point out in this thread that priors are mental not actual But that makes them not probabilities! Credences are not probabilities

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @virgil_30

      AHA! we may be in complete agreement assuming that the standard physics model is close to correct, then we have two concepts: * credences, about already instantiated things which we are partially ignorant of * probabilities, about things which are not yet instantiated

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP @virgil_30

      2/ my credence that the coin I flipped and which landed under the desk is that it is head with p=0.5 my prior / probability about rain 3 year from today is also p=0.5 ...but these are two entirely distinct concepts.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. the brave little poaster‏ @virgil_30 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @MorlockP

      I still don’t think the latter one is a probability

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. the brave little poaster‏ @virgil_30 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @virgil_30 @MorlockP

      Wait I’m confused by your distinction These seem like two different kinds of credence neither of which is a probability The latter is more understandable but it’s still important to separate the actual uncertainties of the event from our mental picture of it

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 11 Mar 2021
      Replying to @virgil_30

      I think we need to define terms

      4:34 AM - 11 Mar 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info