1/ The Cathedral is starting to admit that Social Security is going to collapsehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-were-right-to-worry-about-the-nations-fiscal-future-but-i-know-when-to-fold-em/2021/01/27/dae752fc-6023-11eb-9061-07abcc1f9229_story.html …
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11/ Most preppers and doomers picture all-or-nothing scenarios. The bombs go off and the lights go out. Reality, tho, responds in fits and starts. Feedback loops work, to some decent degree. When OPEC cuts oil supply, civilization doesn't die ... growth slows instead.
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12/ When SS's IOUs are worthless, they don't disband SS some Wednesday at 2pm. Instead, they adjust the knobs. Full on doomerism can be fun LARPing, but it's not _useful_. Prepare for realistic / likely cases instead.
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13/ Deflation only happens when money supply is fixed (bc specie currency). I can't see a scenario where we experience real deflation in a world where the fed go brrrrr > RT
@wraithburn It could even just be another Panic of 1837, with the deflationary shock of the time.Show this thread
End of conversation
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I expect: ·higher payroll taxes ·taxes applied to income above the current cap, without additional credited benefits ·higher retirement age ·part of benefits becoming means-tested, hurting people who saved for retirement
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