1/ The Cathedral is starting to admit that Social Security is going to collapsehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-were-right-to-worry-about-the-nations-fiscal-future-but-i-know-when-to-fold-em/2021/01/27/dae752fc-6023-11eb-9061-07abcc1f9229_story.html …
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10/ Yep. Or both. Right now the SS tables show that my wife and I will each get $2,848 / month if we retire in 19 years at age 68. I expect: * retirement age slips to 70 * payout slips down to $2k or so * SS taxes go up between now and thenhttps://twitter.com/Jeff_Weimer/status/1354774513683230721 …
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11/ Most preppers and doomers picture all-or-nothing scenarios. The bombs go off and the lights go out. Reality, tho, responds in fits and starts. Feedback loops work, to some decent degree. When OPEC cuts oil supply, civilization doesn't die ... growth slows instead.
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12/ When SS's IOUs are worthless, they don't disband SS some Wednesday at 2pm. Instead, they adjust the knobs. Full on doomerism can be fun LARPing, but it's not _useful_. Prepare for realistic / likely cases instead.
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13/ Deflation only happens when money supply is fixed (bc specie currency). I can't see a scenario where we experience real deflation in a world where the fed go brrrrr > RT
@wraithburn It could even just be another Panic of 1837, with the deflationary shock of the time.Show this thread
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this is a concept I resisted far too long tbqh
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Money should be a relatively safe store of value in the short to medium term, though, or it makes wages and spending really hard. If prices wildly fluctuate, how do you know how much your store of value or skills are worth?
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