2/ but one that analyzed each individual idea to see if it made nuclear war more or less likely. It gave examples of stabilizing vs destabilizing weapons. Destabilizing weapons are those that change the game theory calculus. E.g. hardened silos are stabilizing, bc >>>
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3/ they make it more likely that country B can survive an initial attack and counter attack, thus making MAD more effective, thus reducing the incentive for country A to try an initial decapitation strike.
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4/ On that note, I've been thinking / worrying about the fact that US, China, and Russia are all developing hypersonic, non-ballistic missiles. Seems like a destabilizing technology. Lower launch signature (ICBM launches are very easy to see via sattelite), shorter flight time
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5/ ICBMs have about 25-30 minutes between launch and impact. Assume 5 minutes gets wasted before POTUS is informed, he can gather facts and consult with advisors for almost 20 minutes before commanding a launch. Hypersonic missiles launched from bombers are harder to detect,
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6/ ...and fly faster ... at least towards coastal targets (longer to get to the center of the US). Anyway. "May you live in interesting times."
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7/ The good news, though, is that we've got very intelligent, sane, balanced people with excellent cognitive skills at the highest levels of power in both the US and PRC, so it's all gonna be ok.
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I, of course, own and have read this.

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I commend your assessment of developments conditioned not on political flavor but a realist determination of risk and game theoretic imbalance. It’s similar to the arguments surrounding tactical mobile nuclear strike groups. https://sukhavati.space/2019/08/ pic.twitter.com/XDYHJKpREU
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that's ... what I just said, yes?
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