I've seen this tweet over and over and over. What I HAVEN'T seen is hard evidence of wide-spread destruction of envelopes. I keep seeing CLAIMS of it, but no EVIDENCE. Not even an affidavit. https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1326977965742288896 …
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8/ ...and, no, "typical industry practice" is absolutely unacceptable for voting software. But that's a different topic than "what electors get sent to DC and who's the next POTUS".
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9/ The ONLY thing that I find very interesting right now is "Was there mass fraud in 2-3 Dem machine cities?" I ask friends if there's evidence, and I get told "yes". I ask for links, and I get links to affidavits that ... really don't prove much of anything.
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10/ Now, I entirely understand that the good hard content, if it exists, is in lawsuits, and not being thrown around twitter. And maybe not all of those suits have been filed yet. So I'm giving this another week or so. Perhaps there are some absolutely killer suits queued up
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11/ Let me weigh in with my intuitions, expressed as probabilities, on a few things. Software first: * there are tons of bugs: 100% * the engineers know there are bugs: 100% * the CEO of the firm has heard that there are bugs: 100% * some machines were left on the net: 95+%
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12/ * software updates to machines were installed in a sloppy, against policy manner: 95% * races were configured poorly, leading to tabulation errors: 95% * the software firm has CEO / investors / etc who are involved in D politics: 95%
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13/ * the CEO / Board of Directors exploited bugs or backdoors in the code to "fix" races for Dem candidates: much much less than 1% Sure, it's possible, but I just don't see anyone being that coordinated AND that willing to take a risk, while leaving fingerprints all over it.
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14/ Now, on the topic of misc nonsense: * chance that some USPS supervisor ordered backdating of ballots: 95+% I've dealt with low level bureaucrats and townies. The laws are guidelines ; they'd leave the nuclear launch keys in the locks because "it's faster that way".
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15/ * workers in urban precincts were rude to poll watchers, violated laws, kept them too far back: 99.9% * election workers handled ballots in wrong containers, without proper seals, etc.: 99%. Hire some farmhands, some day. Or run a small companyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVWH01E2weA …
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16/ * Individual ballots were counted twice: 100% * individual ballots were discarded: 100% * ballots were accepted with improper ID: 100% * ...and so forth, for all of the possible mid-level nonsense and !@#-ed up processes, and misunderstanding instructions, and malfeasance
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17/ ...but none of that adds up to a ton. We have have a commission to attempt to fix it all (drive errors and bull !@# down by 95% before 2024), but that's not gonna put DJT in the White house.
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18/ Here are the only things that matter for DJT, IMO: * were R watchers dismissed at several polling places in D districts, for nefarious purposes: 95% * did big city Dem machines use that time to process fake votes, or switch vote totals: 90%
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19/ * if so, did they do it by margins big enough to through the states in question? 85% * did this happen in enough swing states to change the POTUS? 80% * will the investigation process turn up hard data to either prove this, or prove the existing results invalid? 70%
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20/ * will the Red team make a convincing case, that legally holds together, and file it in the right court, with enough time left? 60% * will SCOTUS, if SCOTUS is relevant, rule to discard ballots / invalidate one or more state races, in a way that gives it to DJT? 50%
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21/ Re that last one, I can, sadly, imagine that SCOTUS might effectively face down Civil War 2 if they are perceived by 50% of the population, to "steal" an election that Biden "won" and "hand it" to Trump ... and blink.
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22/ TLDR: the only path forward I see for DJT / R is solid proof of MASSIVE conspiracy in 2-3 states, that they can prove, and that SCOTUS will listen to and cure. I see the chances of all of that, multiplied out, somewhere between 20-50%.
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23/ Caveat: I'm just some hobo living on a farm, and I actively try to avoid the news. So this is all nonsense. Advice: Ignore all of this insanity. Cook dinner w your spouse. Plan next spring's garden.
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24/ Yes, "I'm hearing" is cancer. I've also grown more attuned to "apparently". Ah, that's a cursed word. Like the passive voice, but for moral authority.https://twitter.com/micahodor/status/1326995814653235201 …
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25/ yep I'd not remotely be shocked in the code had logins for admins to remotely connect. Which sucks / is bad. ...but I'd want to see evidence that anyone did, and that they did anything.https://twitter.com/forsoothic/status/1327013644530495491 …
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26/ re this one thing I saw was that Diebold machines had software that ALLOWS FOR fractional / decimal votes, and that was turned off in this election, but the database still stored it as decimal, and sums didn't always add up to whole numbers and >>>https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1327009451367337984 …
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27/ <SHUDDER> That sounds far too like every complicated decades-old system I've ever worked on. One point was raised "...but only one city uses that feature, and they didn't even buy this brand of machine!!!!" and >>>
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28/ I can ALLLLL to easily understand this story: * enthusiastic sales guy looking at 10% commission AND hitting a quarterly tier bonus "GUYS, we NEED this feature!" * coders reluctantly add it, with migrations for database * sale falls through * sales guy moves on to next job
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29/ Code base is forever cursed with vote totals carried around a DECIMAL instead of INT. Code base now has 2,303 features, 70% of which are rarely used. Test code coverage is 51% ... on a good day.
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30/ this is exactly the same territory I'm inhttps://twitter.com/argyriou15/status/1327017214340255747 …
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31/ In reply to me saying "I've seen zero hard data on envelopes being destroyed", Ron (who's in the trenches litigating this stuff) chimes in:https://twitter.com/RonColeman/status/1327009488990330892 …
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32/ re this I forget the exact claim, but it was at a website >>> https://twitter.com/mjstallman/status/1327018697534304257 …
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33/ one of these three links, IIRC http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/ … http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-2/ … http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-3/ …
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34/ Gosh, coopers mom, if only I had thought that through and maybe mentioned it in my thread three times. thanks for tagging in and correcting me!https://twitter.com/coopersmom66/status/1327027114915360769 …
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