2/ If we had an endangered species and the average female of that species had 3 offspring, would that bode betwee or worse for the survival of the species than if the average female of that species had 1 offspring [ fertile offspring that blah blah ] ?https://twitter.com/les_ja/status/1323361943265009664 …
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3/ The problem with all of these "smart takes" about how 2+2 can = 5 , if we're dealing with a certain kind of modulo arithmetic, or how replacement fertility don't real if we have immigration, or blah blah blah is that it's motte and bailey / non central example fallacy. >
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4/ The people trying to argue that it's not real are obviously smart enough to understand the core point being made, and could make strong defenses of it, if they cared to, but they've got politics that makes it fun to downplay the point / mock the point makers, so they contrive
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Okay I guess, but I'm making a positivist claim that as a mathematical concept it has zero utility for what it's usually used forhttps://twitter.com/les_ja/status/1323147542729682944?s=19 …
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this is like saying that because Gross National Income doesn't *perfectly* track average domestic consumption, that it has *zero* utility for understanding the latter. of course it's not a perfect measure, b/c cohort effects and so on, but it's still a highly informative number.
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Lots of ways it could be "fake." 1) not actually happening 2) happening, but not actually a bad thing 3) happening, but some common interpretation is wrong I feel this way about overpopulation and the gender pay gap.
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I wonder what the distinction between a demographer and a "critical demographer" ispic.twitter.com/wlBQgau7qa
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