At $12m/launch, Virgin Orbit would need more than 4 launches a year to cover a 5% interest on $1B. At 8 launches a year, it can cover interest and recoup $1B in 15 years, after 121 launches. At 12 launches a year, breakeven is on a 2030 horizon, after 105 launches.https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1318904592109809670 …
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5% is a bare minimum for such a risky investment. 10% is more realistic, and more dangerous for the company. A minimum of 9 launches a year would be needed to stay afloat. Breaking even by 2030 would require 14 launches a year, for a 107x total. There is however a major problem.
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It cannot be expected that you can keep asking for $12m/launch over the next decade when the space launch industry is moving so quickly, and prices are racing to the bottom. And if launches are so frequent, then they can reliably hop onto a Falcon 9 at <$3000/kg vs $40,000/kg.
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Replying to @MorlockP
Just trying to put some numbers out there, to give a sense of scale on the issue.
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yep, and it's great too much of the space industry fan boys love the engineering but ignore the finances - and financial engineering is just as important as ISP and turbopump pressure etc
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