Under the "waiting time paradox" https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05883 we have been waiting for the next nuclear war for 75 years, and so on average they happen every 150 years, and so the chance is 0.6% per year.https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1312014302505775105 …
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Replying to @MorlockP
That sort of reasoning could at best set an upper bound.
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Replying to @robinhanson
neither an upper bound nor a lower bound an average
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Replying to @MorlockP @robinhanson
it's possible that the chance of nuclear was is 10% per year and we've just been very lucky (not likely, but the data that we have can't rule it out!)
6:48 AM - 2 Oct 2020
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