Under the "waiting time paradox" https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05883 we have been waiting for the next nuclear war for 75 years, and so on average they happen every 150 years, and so the chance is 0.6% per year.https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1312014302505775105 …
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what do you mean?
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There will be no January This is the Long March
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January is the Long Tomorrow.
End of conversation
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