I am willing to bet my $10 to your $1 that at least one of the vaccines currently in trial will be shown to reduce infection rates by at least 50% by May 1 and will have no disqualifying side effects.
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and note that Tom and I do not _ASSUME_ that something will work. We QUANTIFY our uncertainty.
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Replying to @NoLongerBennett @tom_hynes
I will take that bet at your $1 vs my $5 ...although...I've got some vague memory that you and I already HAVE this bet, or similar? so let's research that before perhaps making a SECOND bet
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Replying to @NoLongerBennett @tom_hynes
I understood ENTIRELY what you proposed. My different odds and smaller stake were a response to that. $5 is a fun stake. $200 is an anxiety provoking stake. There's a case that $5 is less intellectually serious. So be it. Let's see if we already have a bet elsewhere 1st
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Is the bet for 2020 or 2021? Because it is likely the only way you are getting a COVID vaccine this October is through a clinical trial.
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indeed
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