1/ I .. don't think this necessarily proves what they think it proves.https://twitter.com/JohnHolbein1/status/1300441384848166913 …
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4/ If drivers break down into two categories, e.g. "sketchy" (10% chance of having drugs) and "clean cut" (2% chance of having drugs) and police can tell the difference, and races differ in % of their drives in each category (e.g. 20% of blacks, 10% of whites, 1% Asians sketchy)
5/ So, if we posit that "sketchiness", as sketched out (hah!) here exists, and if we posit that police can detect it, and if we posit that some races have more sketchy members than others, then police getting the same rate of contraband in these searches is proof that >>>
6/ * police are decently calibrated * some races are sketchier / more criminal than others I've been arguing this story for years, and BALKO JUST TWEETED IT OUT !!!
8/ Now I need to read the paper in full, hopefully after works.
To be fair to the analysis, they ended up with higher contraband rates for whites (37%) as for black (34%) or hispanic (25%) searches, so there's a genuine difference in impact here.
That said, they did some serious diddling with the definition of "hispanic" that makes me more than a little cautious -- going by a technical approach using surnames, rather than what the trooper recorded-- along with limiting their data set to speeding stops involving locals.
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