2/ There are two ways that we could arrive at this set of facts. a) police have absolutely zero ability to correlate visible behaviors (speeding, broken lights, weaving, # occupants in car) with non visible behaviors (drug possession) b) police have some ability to do so
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3/ if police have ZERO ability, and they stop cars at random, and 5% of all cars (driven by whites, hispanics, blacks, and Asians) have drugs, then we would see this result ON THE OTHER HAND ...
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4/ If drivers break down into two categories, e.g. "sketchy" (10% chance of having drugs) and "clean cut" (2% chance of having drugs) and police can tell the difference, and races differ in % of their drives in each category (e.g. 20% of blacks, 10% of whites, 1% Asians sketchy)
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5/ So, if we posit that "sketchiness", as sketched out (hah!) here exists, and if we posit that police can detect it, and if we posit that some races have more sketchy members than others, then police getting the same rate of contraband in these searches is proof that >>>
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6/ * police are decently calibrated * some races are sketchier / more criminal than others I've been arguing this story for years, and BALKO JUST TWEETED IT OUT !!!
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8/ Now I need to read the paper in full, hopefully after works.
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