2/ I made my first professional sale to TSR when I was 13. Grand total of $100, IIRC. Still, with current discipline & skills, could do that 10-20 times per year, perhaps? Earn $2k/yr starting at age 13 or so, maybe ... Apple was 39 c /share. ...but it only did 4x til 1990
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3/ So $2k/yr from age 10 to 18 is $16k, assume 2x on all that money ... ugh, 8 years of grinding to get $32k by age 18. At 18 (1989) I can hitchhike to Rt 128 or SV and talk myself into a coding job making $25-30k. Now I can maybe save $10k/yr, if I live on rice & beans
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4/ So by age 20 (1991) I have $50k in savings. Put that into MSFT and ride it for 10 years, for 50x, so now I've got $2.5M at age 29. Nice ... but not billionaire money yet. I suppose I can use leverage, tho, to double up on all of this.
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5/ You don't want to be wiped out by margin calls, so you can't lever up 5x or whatever. PLUS investing was a big old hassle in the 80s and 90s. Paper certificates, T+5 day settlement, $30-50 per trade fees ... So assume 2x leverage, plus or minus, ignore taxes. $5M at age 29
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6/ After 2000 AD you start to see the massive run ups in GOOG, AMZN, FB, etc. So, stop working at age 29, live off interest from $2M of the $5M, stick rest in angel investing, try to get in on the above. In 10 years (age 39) you're def > $100M, and life is good.
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7/ The amount of grinding, tho, from age 10 to age 30 ... ugh. I ALREADY !@#-ing GROUND FROM AGE 10 TO 40. Really not in a mood to start entirely over again. ...especially needing a hall pass to go to bathroom for the first 6-8 eyars.
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8/ yep, definitely this butterfly effect ; small changes caused by your investing could percolate to VCs investing slightly differently, key engineers choosing different jobs, etc. We have no idea how contingent GOOG, etc. dominance is. https://twitter.com/lesmothian/status/1288220748126052353 …
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9/ but butterfly effect isn't the big thing - the decades of grinding is. Man, I'VE DONE THAT. I want to slow down the grind, not sign up for two+ more decades of it.
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10/ I ALREADY TRIED THAT. I took AP physics sophmore year, bailed on HS at 16 to go to college, etc. Only knocked a year or two off the grind. In 2020, a time traveller in a 10yo body could start coding online for $100 / hr In 1981...not so much. >>>https://twitter.com/leepavelich/status/1288221449635819520 …
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11/ What are you going to do as a smart 10 year old in 1981? Hitchhike to DEC in Nashua NH and ask for a job programming vaxen? IBM? Even "band of pirates" Apple isn't going to give you a job.
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12/ I had an 1170 SAT in 7th grade (age 12). Everyone was really impressed. Still doesn't let you get a job.https://twitter.com/kevin_vangelder/status/1288221782990712832 …
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13/ MAYBE the approach is to take the SAT and apply to local colleges at age 10. I suppose that with my current knowledge and discipline I could do a BA in 3 years and get a CS degree. MAYBE a firm would hire a 13 yo w a degree?
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14/ this is not the way that most folks are playing the game, I thinkhttps://twitter.com/LAWGermany/status/1288222599315628038 …
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16/ don't just say "buy a gazillion" where does that gazillion come from? How big is it actually? What's the ROI over the next 10 years? Do the math; if you're around my age, it's not so easy.https://twitter.com/cyr_actual/status/1288223115517005825 …
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17/ Replay was good. I was very underwhelmed by Rewrite tho https://www.amazon.com/Rewrite-Loops-Timescape-Gregory-Benford/dp/1481487698 …https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1288224464946302977 …
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18/ Concur. I think the market was a lot calmer / slower in the 1980s and 1990s.https://twitter.com/0x49fa98/status/1288225128371892224 …
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19/ Oh, crap, boss move is to JOIN a startup very very early on. Duh. I remember playing w NSCA Mosaic in 1993 in Boston, and thinking "This is the future ; I should cold call Andreesan and try to join his startup". Didn't tho, bc coward.
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20/ Yeah, this is my thinking. With $50M in the bank you can also get a Thiel blood boy for transfusions, personal chef / trainer, etc.https://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1288225775343173632 …
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21/ People keep tagging into the thread, not reading what I've wrote. BTC launched in, what, 2009 ? The point I've belabored above remains: gotta grind for ~20+ years before the easy-money / big-money bets start appearing.https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288225915068190722 …
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22/ This is a good point, but OTOH, time as a child ... and under the restrictions of a child ... was / would be kind of hellish. Stuck in the suburbs, with no money, no transportation, no adult conversation, bedtime, homework ... ergh.https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288228896077422592 …
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23/ * this ignores the "grind" point I've made like 100 (well, OK, 20) times above * this ignores the "actually, it's kinda tricky to make $50M even if you know the future" point I've also made over and over.https://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288229260059193344 …
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24/ gosh, if only I'd considered this possibility in the threadhttps://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288231164952686592 …
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26/ And I've played that mental game, too. First off, the electric motor is far too tricky, especially without electricity to power it. Let's do something simple - a steam engine. First, build a machinist's metal lathe. And build the patterns that the foundrymen will cast
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27/ So, you arrive penniless in 1750 or 200 AD or whatever. First, get a job...as a day laborer. WHEW, LADS.
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28/ Yep, that's the other aspect. I hope back to age 10, and my now-wife is 8 years old and 1,000 miles away. Does one arrange to "meet" the future spouse at age 18? Now you're kind of a creepy 60 yo in an 18 yo's body ... and if you met at 30 or 40.. https://twitter.com/Unendedquest/status/1288232260102049793 …
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29/ ...do you even have much to say to her? Most of what made her her are experiences, things learned, things read, etc AFTER that age. Basically, your family is dead and gone, lost in the timeline. REEEEEEEE
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30/ oh, yeah, hmm, that is a good point I should have dug into this in the thread abovehttps://twitter.com/FakkaFranz/status/1288232557579046912 …
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31/ yeah ... you're basically friendless until you get a job and meet coworkers ...and even if you have a lot in common with the 50 yo curmudeon 3 cubes over, he's going to see you as a kid and not gonna be your bff it's a hard lonely life ...https://twitter.com/ZombieClaudeR/status/1288233632461492224 …
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