2/ Given that 0% of the shoplifting teens escalate into officer shootings, and some decent percent of "ok, I shot the liquor store clerk, I'd better carjack a ride before the popo show up" do, it's quite plausible to see total crimes drop, but total shootings stay constant
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3/ as always, dis aggregation is next to godliness
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4/ quite plausible! https://twitter.com/DeanBradleySFF/status/1258739450659647488 …
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5/ Going to a meta point, I have a hard time with responses like the one below. When I see a weird thing - EVEN IF IT AGREES WITH MY PRIORS (e.g. "cops are way too shooty"), my first instinct is to generate contrary hypotheses.https://twitter.com/AvigdorLoeb/status/1258737492976701440 …
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Was going to say, 'crime rates are down' is probably largely attributable to the petty stuff not being possible/not being enforced. But is possible increase in desperation and opportunity means similar rate of violent crimes. Important question to answer: are dog murders down?
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Would make wild guess that there's increase in armed burglary w/residents home, simply because more people are home. Hypo: easier/safer to rob a family in a home than to loot a store?
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