1/ looking at covid stats is tricky bc - noisy day-to-day data - weekends are different from weekdays, for whatever reason I have been tracking US covid deaths per day, and smoothing with both a 3-day running average and a 6-day running average
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4/ Second derivative is still good ... but third derivative is not so good. Will be interesting to see where this goes. My prediction is that within 2 weeks we're going to see more days than not fail this test.
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5/ To be clear, all of this is not a "model". Models aren't just curve fitting and tweaking params and saying "Eureka! I understand it". This is just playing with data, trying to get a handle on what the derivatives look like. Also: my thoughts are worth what you pay for them
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