This from Cowen sounds right to me. We'll get diminishing waves of reopening, new infection, and closures, thanks to our system of distributed governance. In the end we won't do that much worse than more centralized systems, but we won't do much better. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/where-we-stand.html …
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Tops, NYC is infecting 20% of the city in this wave. They need 60-70.
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Those N Italy towns had 50:1 seroprevalence to recorded cases. I bet NYC will be much lower because of very high testing capacity, maybe 10:1, but hard to know.
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>lockdowns are a tool to slowly achieve herd immunity without overwhelming the hospitals Disagree. Lockdowns are a tool to dramatically suppress transmission and reduce case counts to a level that can be contained. Suppress, then contain until eradication.
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This is the approach articulated in that one Medium essay by that one guy, which he called "the hammer and the dance" It's an approach that has been concretely specified as a plan being promulgated by the AEI It's the plan we should follow, and that I believe we will.
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