-
-
2/ The estimate that I've had all along: * China has a 10-20% CFR * we will have ~1/10th of that, because of less smoking, clean air, better hospitals * = 1%, times or divided by 2 * = 0.5 - 2% CFR * and a 50% infection rate * = 0.25 - 1% of US population dead however >>>
1 reply 2 retweets 8 likesShow this thread -
3/ that was BEFORE social isolation kicked in frankly, I was wrong, in that I didn't expect we'd be able to pull this off so now I think that the above math is way on the high side I now expect, I dunno, 1/4 of that? 1/10th? >>>
4 replies 1 retweet 10 likesShow this thread -
4/ haven't fully thought it through, but doing the math now * my estimate for no quarantine (#2 in this thread): 750K - 3 M US dead * my estimate with quarantine: 75K - 900K (that's taking 1/10 of no-quarantine low number & 1/4 of no-quarantine high number, so lo/low & hi/hi)
2 replies 1 retweet 14 likesShow this thread -
5/ also, my bias is always to expect the worst, to plan for it, and to attempt to mitigate it, so I have a constitutional aversion to cheery scenarios ; I'd rather be surprised by things turning out better than expected than surprised by the reverse so take these numbers as >>>
1 reply 1 retweet 18 likesShow this thread -
6/ those of a principled, numerate pessimist I think numbers WORSE than this are very very very unlikely.
6 replies 1 retweet 16 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @MorlockP
I think is is a reasonable estimate. I was pushing back against a guy spouting out "2.2 million dead" which seems, at this point, irresponsibly high. That is a "civilization teeters" number.
2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
I don't put 2.2M entirely outside the realm of the possible we may end up undoing quarantine, getting another wave, restarting quarantine, etc for 2 or 3 years not how I'd bet, but possible I call 2.2M a ... 5% chance?
-
-
Replying to @MorlockP @politicalmath
IF: * The South Korean numbers are right to a tad low * We lose ICU at some point, so mortality is 4% * We lose containment and go full Spanish flu aka 90 Million I get 3.6 Million. Do I think that'll happen? No, we'll do things to stop it. But.
0 replies 0 retweets 4 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.