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My personal pessimistic "worst case semi-plausible" scenario is that long term economic and social consequences that will dwarf the death toll in the collective memory. Boogaloo was already in the air before nCoV was.
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I foresee a summer without emergency services, and there's no model to predict how that will play out,pic.twitter.com/KRcshiTSGJ
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Looks like we may have an existing malaria drug that is 90+% effective at treating covid-19 within 6 days. Just would need to have it approved for off label use. That would significantly cut the casualties.
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I think is is a reasonable estimate. I was pushing back against a guy spouting out "2.2 million dead" which seems, at this point, irresponsibly high. That is a "civilization teeters" number.
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IDK. It sounds like that using our current standards but did civilization teeter even slightly in 1918? Obviously our modern perceptions make this seem intolerable though. When our expectations for lives lost were much lower it was easier to overlook the things
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Re your new death rate estimates: Based on the evidence we have (which isn't much but does exist) I think there's high-death and low-death outcomes; no middle. High is millions, as per your estimate. Low is probably VERY low - not much more than we have now. Tens of thousands.
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... and I think we will avoid the high-death outcome, thanks to the interventions.
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In favor of worse: We will not be able to maintain distancing for the usual vaccine-development period of 18 months. If an *effective and safe* vaccine is available unusually quickly, your
#s are likely right. If not, isolation will break down and deaths will rise again.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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