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4/ haven't fully thought it through, but doing the math now * my estimate for no quarantine (#2 in this thread): 750K - 3 M US dead * my estimate with quarantine: 75K - 900K (that's taking 1/10 of no-quarantine low number & 1/4 of no-quarantine high number, so lo/low & hi/hi)
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5/ also, my bias is always to expect the worst, to plan for it, and to attempt to mitigate it, so I have a constitutional aversion to cheery scenarios ; I'd rather be surprised by things turning out better than expected than surprised by the reverse so take these numbers as >>>
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6/ those of a principled, numerate pessimist I think numbers WORSE than this are very very very unlikely.
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End of conversation
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Wrong? I'm seeing plenty of people outside my window. Tons of cars on the road.
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china isolated by welding doors shut, i don’t see that happening in the US
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How long do you believe social isolation on this scale is possible? I know that's a heavy question, but I feel like this strategy is unsustainable. When things open up again, curve will pick back up. Do we just alternate between cycles of productivity and isolation?
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