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3/ that was BEFORE social isolation kicked in frankly, I was wrong, in that I didn't expect we'd be able to pull this off so now I think that the above math is way on the high side I now expect, I dunno, 1/4 of that? 1/10th? >>>
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4/ haven't fully thought it through, but doing the math now * my estimate for no quarantine (#2 in this thread): 750K - 3 M US dead * my estimate with quarantine: 75K - 900K (that's taking 1/10 of no-quarantine low number & 1/4 of no-quarantine high number, so lo/low & hi/hi)
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5/ also, my bias is always to expect the worst, to plan for it, and to attempt to mitigate it, so I have a constitutional aversion to cheery scenarios ; I'd rather be surprised by things turning out better than expected than surprised by the reverse so take these numbers as >>>
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6/ those of a principled, numerate pessimist I think numbers WORSE than this are very very very unlikely.
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