2/ The estimate that I've had all along: * China has a 10-20% CFR * we will have ~1/10th of that, because of less smoking, clean air, better hospitals * = 1%, times or divided by 2 * = 0.5 - 2% CFR * and a 50% infection rate * = 0.25 - 1% of US population dead however >>>
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3/ that was BEFORE social isolation kicked in frankly, I was wrong, in that I didn't expect we'd be able to pull this off so now I think that the above math is way on the high side I now expect, I dunno, 1/4 of that? 1/10th? >>>
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4/ haven't fully thought it through, but doing the math now * my estimate for no quarantine (#2 in this thread): 750K - 3 M US dead * my estimate with quarantine: 75K - 900K (that's taking 1/10 of no-quarantine low number & 1/4 of no-quarantine high number, so lo/low & hi/hi)
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5/ also, my bias is always to expect the worst, to plan for it, and to attempt to mitigate it, so I have a constitutional aversion to cheery scenarios ; I'd rather be surprised by things turning out better than expected than surprised by the reverse so take these numbers as >>>
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6/ those of a principled, numerate pessimist I think numbers WORSE than this are very very very unlikely.
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ok, I want to see where this goes :)
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People are just saying if we do nothing that is what will happen-- if we treat it like we treat the flu, millions of Americans will die. It's a response to "it's just the flu" or "tens of thousands died from the flu last year". If we treat it the same way as the flu, millions is
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On the low end, by all estimates of the mortality rate, combined with what we know right now of how it would overwhelm our medical system. If everyone were to treat it as the flu, millions would die.
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